Rudy Giuliani on "The Clinton Treatment"

Giuliani Jibes at Obama's Just-Us Department

Rudy Giuliani on Stop and Frisk

 

 

Explaining Away the Trump Intervention

With the dramatic drop of Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump (R-NY) in the post convention polls, there has been murmuring in establishment GOP circles that there ought to be an "intervention" to prevent an election day disaster.  There have even been reports that the RNC has been studying Rule 9, which establishes the procedure of replacing a national Republican candidate.

While the drop in the polls may fuel such speculation, it is typical talk during an election cycles "Silly Season" when the electorate is not focused on the campaign (with vacations, the Olympics) nor are there big events (such as the conventions or debates) looming.

A strong Trump surrogate, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, fanned the flames of this Trump intervention talk with his honest analysis of how Trump 2.0 (if it ever comes to fruition) must evolve for the general election. To do damage control, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NYC) tried to explain away the characterization of a Trump "intervention".

First Takes on The Trump Show (RNC Edition)

The first day of the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland was the regular season premiere of The Trump Show.  This was the chance for the presumptive Republican nominee to shine as he re-introduces himself as the standard bearer of the GOP. While it was not a Trump Train wreck, per se, there were some snafus which portend poorly for the future.

A standard operating procedure for conventions is to start with a benediction from clergy.  This ought to be a pro-forma prayer which raises the profile of a religious figure while asking for divine blessings upon the proceedings and their chosen leader.

 The Trump Show picked Pastor Mark Burns, a black evangelical televangelist from South Carolina’s high country.  Burns was a last minute addition after the assassination of three Baton Rouge Police Officers. Burns claimed that he was going to talk about unity and love.  However, Pastor Burns 187 word benediction alienated many evangelicals and mainline Christians  for his idolization of Donald Trump in prayer while effectively demonizing Democrats and especially the “enemy” Hillary Clinton. It would be easy to dismiss this bumbled benediction, but it may have set the tone for the rest of the Trump Show regular season premiere otherwise known as the RNCinCLE.

Casual political observers may wonder if political conventions do any real work, because what they watch in prime time tends to be speechifying (both electrifying as well as stupifying) and people wearing funny hats and odd apparel. Prior to the age of television and jet airliners, conventions could be both decisive and raucous.  But since then, with few exceptions (like the RNC in 1976 or the DNC in 1968), now prime time coverage is effectively a soft sell earned media party commercial framed as public service programming.

Duck Dynasty's Willie Robertson

As he was emerging victoriously from the primaries, Donald Trump insisted that the party add some pizzaz and show business to conventions so that the audience does not fall asleep.  So The Trump Show started prime time coverage spotlighting luminaries like Duck Dynasty’s Willie Robertson and Scott Baio (from the 1970s sitcom “Happy Days” and the mid 1980s sitcom “Charles in Charge.”  Later in the convention, the organizers will amp it up by featuring lingerie models extolling the virtues of “The Donald”.  Alas, this is not a tongue in cheek suggestion.

There is some party business that is still conducted in the afternoons of conventions.  For the 2016 Republican Convention, there was an effort by delegates in the minority for floor consideration for future party rules. In the 2016 cycle, Donald Trump managed to win pluralities in many early primaries with a crowded field of 16 real candidates (sorry ex Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore was a Walter Smitty candidate this year).  Several significant contests were open primaries, in which a voter need not have been a registered Republican.  This may have allowed for a significant crossover vote by Democrats to choose to GOP nominee.  Some states also bound their delegates to the winner of the “beauty contest”.  Conservatives were also concerned about ceding grassroots power to the Chairman of the RNC, who could arbitrarily change the rules at the whim of the Republican Establishment.

Efforts to unbind the delegates failed in the Rules Committee last week, so conservative grassroots delegates fought to have a floor vote. It seems that the Trump campaign thought this was an earnest effort to dethrone him so they characterized this as the last vestiges of the Dump Trump movement and wanted to kill the effort at all costs.  When the motion looked like it might succeed, the Chair abandoned the dais for 10 minutes and then the convention unexpectedly adjourned for four hours.  During this time, delegations were said to be strong armed.  The Iowa Delegation was one of the petitioners, and they were threatened that they would lose their first in the Nation’s Iowa Caucus.  The Alaska Delegation was given false and conflicting information on how to submit the signatures for their petition.  A delegate from Utah was verbally accosted by some de facto Trump thug delegates who inveighed that she should die.

These hardball partisan political tactics are the hallmark of Trump Convention Manager Paul Manafort.  Manafort has a history of winning at all costs, as was demonstrated by the aggressive means of persuasion at the RNC in Kansas City in 1976 in which incumbent President Ford was seriously challenged at the convention by former California Governor Ronald Reagan).  Trump also had to distance himself from long time confidant Roger Stone after he “suggested” that Trump partisans get the delegates names of the Pennsylvania delegation and lobby them in their hotel rooms.

In the end, the party establishment ruled that the champions of the Rules Committee Minority Report were ruled to not have sufficient support. Although the insurgents submitted signatures from nine state delegations (two  more than necessary), the chair reported that three states had withdrawn their petitions so there would be no roll call vote but gave no more specifics.  Microphones on the floor for delegates to petition the chair or call for points of order were switched off. The Chair pretended to conduct a voice vote to table the measure, but despite thunderous opposition, it was killed by the Establishment on the dais.

The media, which had not been given access during the convention kerfluffle, was fed a line that this was the end of the Dump Trump movement, even though that was not the realistic goal of vote on the minority report. The Trump Show was not to be pre-empted by unscheduled convention business.

From an impartial politico perspective, the impetus to quash this roll call vote was imprudent.  The insurgents knew that they didn’t have enough votes to prevail.  Presumably, many of these delegates were Tea Party inspired and they just wanted to play it out to honor the rule of law. By crushing dissent, it calls into question the confidence of the Trump campaign.  In a broader perspective, slapping down dissent does little to build party unity or loyalty. It also shows an imperious, autocratic approach which is incompatible in a democratically elected Republic with rule of law.

A third gaffe was stepping on message.  The theme of the evening was “Making America Safe Again”, playing off the Trump mantra “Make America Great Again”. To wit, The Trump Show arranged to have Pat Smith, mother of Sean Smith who was slain during the 09/11/2012 Bengazi bungle. Mrs. Smith gave emotional speech in which she blamed presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (D-NY) for her son’s death. Pat Smith also acknowledged a sign from the crowd which read “Hillary for Prison”.

Benghazi Mother Pat Smith at the 2016 Republican National Convention

 These points were right on message with the emphasis for improving National Security and demonizing Hillary Clinton (in more than just the benediction).  But many viewers of the Trump Show on the Fox News Channel missed out on these momentous moments, as this was the time Donald Trump chose to call into Bill O’Reilly and insist that he was not a racist. For a guy who’s widely acclaimed as a media genius, Trump either was not served well by his media hog instincts or his staff was remiss in conveying the conflict.

Then there is matter of scheduling speakers. The highlight of the first night of The Trump Show (the RNC edition) was supposed to be the candidate’s wife, ex supermodel Melania Trump, She took the stage after The Donald entered the dais with great flair to introduce her a little after 10 PM EDT.  Melania spoke for around 20 minutes, which was remarkable for a non-professional speaker for which English is a fourth language.

Melania Trump at 2016 Republican National Convention

 But after the sexy spouse left the stage, the media more or less cut away for the night for commentary, though Fox News carried some of Lt. General Michael Flynn’s comments about National Security.  Several speakers later, Republican rising star Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) spoke to a mostly empty Quicken Loans arena. It is sad to consider that both Flynn and Ernst were touted to be Trump running mates, yet both got the short end of the deal with order on the platform. If Trump or his cohort cared about building the GOP brand, the speaker’s schedule could have easily been adjusted to effectively finish prime time with Melania while bolstering the party’s position with respected representatives on center stage with a spotlight.  But the Trump Show seems to be all about Trump and the Trump Family (and Trump Wine).

Although Melania gave a good supportive spouse speech, what people will remember is the plagiarism.  Melania spoke of how she was raised, she declared:

"My parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say and keep your promise; that you treat people with respect.”

This paragraph echoes almost word for word how Michelle Obama described her family’s values during the 2008 Democrat National Convention. Miraculously, this similarity was immediately trumpeted on Twitter by writer Jarrett Hill minutes after Melania uttered the “mimeographed” maxims. This became the talk of the town.  This was only fueled by Trump campaign staff denials with aggressive counter-punching.  Trump Convention Manager Paul Manafort asserted:

Trump Convention Manager Paul Manafort

“There’s no cribbing of Michelle Obama's speech.  These were common words and values that she cares about her family and things like that,. I mean, she was speaking in front of 35 million people last night, she knew that. To think that she would be cribbing Michelle Obama's words is crazy...“I mean, this is, once again, an example of when a woman threatens Hillary Clinton, how she seeks out to demean her and take her down. It's not going to work.”

So Manafort denied the obvious and somehow claimed that the kerfluffle was Hillary Clinton’s fault? Right.  The Trump Campaign turned a tempest in a teapot into a torrent of off-message newspegs.  It all would have gone away had Manafort or aides admitted the obvious.  For a civilian speaker like Melania, there would have been little lasting effect. Instead, the incident reminds everyone of the thin skin of the Trump Campaign, which cannot countenance any criticism while in charge or admit error.  Frankly, it exposes the thin skin of the Trump organization.  Former George W. Bush White House Adviser Dan Senor quipped that :“The whole organization is an advance team and a Twitter feed...and that’s it.”

Milwaukee Cty. Sheriff David Clarke 

Rudy Giuliani at RNCinCLE

There were some positive aspects of The Trump Show (The Convention Edition). Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke (D-Milwaukee) made a strong impact to thunderous applause when he exclaimed that “Blue Lives Matter!”.  Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani gave an impassioned address in which he shouted into the microphone Hillary Clinton’s foibles from Foggy Bottom.  Some commentators appreciated the authenticity of Lone Survivor Marcus Luttrell. And while Benghazi mother Pat Smith lacked professional polish, her genuine grief which she attributed to the hands of Hillary Clinton was impactful.

The Donald’s WWE entrance was cool, but it seemed a bit overblown just to introduce his wife for a supposedly softball speech.

Donald Trump's entrance on first night of 2016 GOP Convention

From afar, it seemed like opening night of The Trump Show sated those convicted for Trump, but did little to build unity of the party or advance allies who can help implement the platform. It seemed like overhyped sizzle with little steak. Most of the Make America Safe Again evening seemed just about slagging the former Secretary of State rather than asserting an actual agenda. But that may be the theme of The Trump Show through November- Trump is better than the alternative (or so we hope).

Rudy Giuliani on FBI Reputation After Clinton Email Case

Rudy Giuliani on FBI Director Comey's Judgment on Clinton E-mail Case

Rudy Giuliani on Donald Trump

Plotting Pathways to Primary Victory By Thinking In Time

When chatting with a friend who is not a political junkie, I questioned if Carly Fiorina’s strong Republican Debate performances can translate into strong showings in Iowa.  My friend questioned the value of the Iowa Caucuses, considering that televangelist Pat Robertson won. With the Iowa Caucuses just a 100 days away, it is worth considering the importance of the early contest and assessing paths to primary victory. 

This dialogue prompted me to review all Republican and Democrat Presidential Primary campaigns since 1976. The assertion that Pat Robertson won is an understandable misconception. He actually placed in second in 2000, thus proving that a campaign need not win in Iowa, but being in the top tier is important to survive the winnowing out.  In the case of Senator Fred Harris (D-OK) in 1976, a fourth place finish with 9.89% support had Harris proclaim that he was "winnowed in” the race. Iowa many not pick a winner, but it typically does thin the field out.

Favorite son candidates can sometimes do well in Iowa just because of their connection or proximity to the Hawkeye State.  Arguably, this was Rep. Dick Gephardt’s (D-MO 3rd) strategy in 1988.  Some thought that such connections would have similarly helped former Congresswoman  Michele Bachmann (R-MN 6th) or ex Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), but this pathway to success proved futile.  There was some speculation that in the 2016 cycle that Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) would have greatly aided by his native Iowan ties and being a next door neighbor, but that was not enough in the 2016 election cycle. 

Iowa and New Hampshire are important because they test a can test a candidates endurance, organization and strategy.  Because voters in the early primary states take their participation seriously, they expect to have lots of one-on-one encounters with hopefuls (retail politics). Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) won Iowa in 2012 on a shoestring budget because of a grassroots effort to have town halls in all 99 counties. 

What makes  the “Haweye Cauci” unique is the fact that Iowa voters take their participation seriously and expect to be courted by aspiring politicians.  Then there is the challenge of getting voters to show up at the Caucuses.  Not only must they be motivated to spend several hours on a snowy Iowa evening to play politics, but they must represent their candidate.  There are not private ballot boxes for Caucuses so Caucus goers must argue and advocate for their candidate. Thus a “silent majority” who acts according to their principles in the sanctity of the ballot box will not do.  They must go before their neighbors and plead their candidates’ cases.

Iowa Howard Dean campaigner 2004

But retail politics needs to be done right to accommodate for Iowa Stubborn.  In 2004, former Governor Howard Dean (D-VT) was the presumptive favorite as he had a large stash of cash from internet fundraising and could mobilize an army of college students to knock on doors. Well, Hawkeyes did not cotton to brigades of out of state whipper-snappers in bright orange ski hats prodding people to the caucuses.  Thus Dean was in a battle for third place.  To rally the troops after the Caucus results were announced, he did the infamous Howard Dean scream, which was the beginning of the end for him.



The Iowa contest may only sport 30 delegates split amongst the candidates, but doing well gives what 1980 GOP candidate (and later President)  George Herbert Walker Bush called “The Big Mo”.  Good publicity from being win place or show in Iowa can help for the next contest in New Hampshire. 



But where “the Big Mo”  really matters is in the “Invisible Primary” for donor dollars.  When primary voters start selecting candidates (as Iowans do not vote), traditionally financial supporters either open the floodgates or cut off the flow of funds.  People like to bet on winners and may jump on the bandwagon to curry favor with underdogs who outperform expectations. Some may claim that the “Invisible Primary” ends before selection process begins, because money in the bank allows for prudent allocation of resources. But sometimes candidates on the brink of financial collapse, like Senator John McCain in 2008 or Senator Rick Santorum’s shoestring start  in 2012, needed the infusion of finances and publicity after doing well (or significantly beating expectations) in Iowa.


Doing well in the donor primary makes a difference in expanding organization and financing media buys several weeks down the road to effectively compete in a series of contests held on the same day, like the SEC primaries (March 1st) or in a populous and diverse state in which wholesale politics is essential, like Florida (March 15th) 

In 2016, the GOP has rules that primaries before March 15th may have proportional distribution of delegates, after that time it is winner take all.  Party rules this cycle also require candidates to win six contests. Candidates need to find their pathway to victory.  

Some Republican candidates choose not to put as much emphasis on Iowa as it is not a reliable predictor of success and the agrarian and evangelical midwestern voters may not suit certain campaigns. The eastern and western edges of Iowa seem to vote for more urban and moderate candidates in GOP primaries while the center of the state can be characterized as quite evangelical and values voters. Santorum squeaked out a victory in 2012 with a campaign appealing to value voters and retail politics. Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR) beat Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) 30%-27% by winning with “very conservative” voters, many of whom were evangelical value voters.

The importance of Iowa was demonstrated by the quick reversal of a social media faux pas by Donald Trump.  The brash businessman has earned a reputation of raring for a fight and never backing down. While Mr. Trump has been top of the Republican polls for the last 100 days, but a recent poll showed that he dropped in second place in the Hawkeye State behind another outsider candidate Dr. Ben Carson.  Trump's Twitter account, which he had leveraged for publicity to personally comment during the Democrat debate, forwarded a snarky dismissal of the poll, denegrating Iowans.  

Within a couple of hours, the Trump campaign deleted the tweet and expressed the regret for a young intern for the gaffe.  OK. so much for spoiling for a fight and never backing down as well as the aura of authenticity. But it goes to show the importance of not offending Hawkeyes and alienating the Charm of Iowa Stubborn 





If not Iowa, Republican candidates have to rely on doing well in New Hampshire, the first primary state.  The Granite State had a long reputation for picking Republican winners, with a couple of notable recent excecpion. Typically, New Hampshire voters are contrarian rejecting Iowa’s lead. Candidates sometimes camp out there to do tons of town hall meetings to maximize retail politics.   Senator John McCain (R-AZ) used it as his breakout moment in 2008. Conventional wisdom is that if you don’t do well in Iowa or New Hampshire, it is wise to hang it up.

A few contemporary candidates have sought to eschew the Iowa Caucuses and the First Primary in New Hampshire, much at their peril.  In 2008, Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NYC) calculated that he would win the Sunshine State due to the number of transplanted New Yorkers. So he essentially skipped Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Nevada. To his chagrin, Giuliani only garnered 14.7% of the vote.  On top of that, any delegates won were cut in half since the Florida primary was held too early for Republican rules. 

In 2012, Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-UT)  iconoclastically set up his campaign HQ in Orlando thinking that Florida would lead to victory.  But Huntsman came in third in New Hampshire and dropped out by Florida.

The 2016 GOP Primary cycle features a crowded field and seems strongly influenced by debate performances.  After the second debate at the Reagan Library, businesswoman Carly Fiorina catapulted up to third place in the national polls.  All of that is well and good, but political pundits need to consider what is her plausible path to victory? At this late stage in the campaign, can an unknown candidate build an organization for effective retail politics in the caucuses or does someone like Fiorina hope that Granite State contrarianism carries the day?  Would publicity from an early primary win be enough to build a successful campaign for the SEC primaries or is the hope to be the last acceptable alternative to a frontrunner or establishment candidate?

Frontrunners in the summer before a Presidential campaign year typically do not get the nomination, otherwise there might have been a President Dean (2004), President Gephardt (2008) or President Giuliani (2008). Hardball questions often hinder early frontrunners.  The trick is to peak and the right time and not get in too late.  In the 1980 cycle, then former Governor Ronald Reagan only announced his candidacy in November 1979 and had to rush to organize for Iowa.  But back then a late entry was feasible.  In the summer of 2007, Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN) announced in late for the 2008 primaries and had trouble getting traction and fundraising.  In 2011, Governor Rick Perry (R-TX) joined the 2012 GOP primaries after the Ames Straw Poll, but was hindered by the late start and a monumentally bad debate performance. 

In the 2016 cycle, it has been postulated that Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is wisely waiting in the background to pounce when the primaries start.  Cruz was the first to announce with a strong religious liberty stance that would appeal to evangelical voters.  Cruz is accused by Republican Party elites for pushing for show votes on principled policies (e.g. really repealing Obamacare, Iran Nuke Deal, defunding Planned Parenthood) which underline his “outsider” bona fides while still serving in the District of Calamity.  Cruz has a strong campaign war chest.  All signs point to strong organization in early contests and the SEC primaries.  Cruz is also competing in very small contests (like Guam and Puerto Rico) which are essential to winning enough contests to be considered for nomination.  Cruz is a skilled debater who has made good use of the limited time he has been given in debates and he has not made enemies with his opponents. Yet at the beginning of autumn 2015, Cruz is placing 5th out of 15 with 8% support in polls. 

Cruz’s path to victory would need to do well in Iowa (especially with very conservative and evangelical voters), be competitive in New Hampshire, rebound in conservative South Carolina and then be successful in the bulk of SEC primaries (including his home state of Texas) on March 1st.  This slow and steady success strategy does not have the sizzle of Trump or the establishment imprimatur for former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), but is solid strategy that has a pathway to victory.  Whether or not this works remains to be seen. 

Looking at the GOP primaries methodically may not be as much fun as hobnobbing about the horse race with always changing polls, but it understands the primary process and gives benchmarks for successful strategy rather than a blind bandwagon approach to campaigns. 

Louis Farrakhan on Rudy Giuliani

 The Reverend Louis Farrakhan, the leader of the Nation of Islam in America, took umbrage at Rudy Giuliani's assessment of Barack Obama's formative years.  In response,  Farrakhan launched into a pejorative racial ad hominem attack on America's Mayor as well as all Americans of European descent.

    

 This invective is rather ironic as President Obama's lineage does not include ancestry of slavery.  Barack Hussein Obama, Sr. was a Kenyan and  Stanley Ann Dunham was a white woman hailing from Wichita, Kansas. So the Reverend Farrakhan is conflating the struggle against someone who neither suffered from the disadvantages of slavery nor really lived in society which did not seek to redress those iniquities.

 Rudy Giuliani could point to Barack Obama's two autobiographies, which chronicle how the future President was raised in Indonesia during formative years in which the love of country tended to be instilled.

Where was Louis Farrakhan drawing for his assessments?  Well, it seems that the Rev. Farrakhan has again shifted from knowing Issa (Jesus) better than Christians back to a ministry of rage with a racially apocalyptic eschatology. 

Last week, the White House conducted a three day summit on Countering Violent Extremism, which contorted itself so as not to associate religious motivations to terrorism, especially towards Islam. However, at the same time voices from the Obama Administration  have been quick to point out the Lord's Resistance Army in Central Africa as an example of Christian militant terrorism.    And a 2014 PC DOD presentation listed Catholics, Mormons, Orthodox Jews, evangelical Christians and Islamaphobes along with Al Qaeda as examples of "extremists groups".

 No wonder why we currently have such a whacked weltanschauung in the District of Calamity (sic).

h/t: Michael Ramirez 

Rudy Giuliani on the Love of Country

 "America's Mayor" Rudy Giuliani created a media firestorm after his remarks on patriotism before Republican donors and Presidential hopeful Governor Scott Walker (R-WI). 

 Some of President Obama's appeal in the 2008 Democratic primary was that he was raised during his formative years in Indonesia, where love of America was not inculcated.  However exploring this credential created cries of bigotry and partisan politics.  

 

Dodger -ing McCain's Verbal Flak on Pool-gate

In anticipation of the Los Angeles Dodgers clinching the NL West Division title, the Arizona Diamondbacks requested that the division champions not celebrate on Chase Field in downtown Phoenix.    The visiting team did technically complied, but they expressed their elation  at winning the division title by jumping in the Dodge swimming pool in right field.

This celebration provoked the ire of the senior Senator from Arizona John McCain as was publicized through  his Twitter postings.

While McCain may echo other Arizona Diamondback fan sentiments, his social media sharing should be beneath his office.  This message was not the cute hometown bets between politicians during the playoffs.  Nor was this admiration for a sports team which he has been a long-time fan, like Yankees fans former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NYC) or former First Lady/Senator/Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) (sic).  

Maybe McCain was just pandering to his constituents (the voters, not the media but with the Maverick Senator that can be confusing).  But that's not his job.  Maybe for a Phoenix sportscaster, but not for a US Senator, particularly when the world is going to hell in a handbasket (and McCain makes friends with al Qaeda terrorists in the Free Syrian Army).

Then again, McCain has had difficulty doing his job of late.  McCain was so bored with a high level public hearing on the Syria Crisis, when President Obama was still threatening to strike the Levant, yet the senior Senator was caught playing video poker on the Senate floor.

If John McCain wants to engross himself in the minutia of baseball, it seems that Arizona is a fine place to RETIRE, and watch Cactus League baseball. 

Rudy Giuliani on 9/11