Alan Grayson on Ted Cruz

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL 9th) has a history of offering inflammatory opinions in order to pejoratively paint his political opposition.

 As he ramps up his campaign for the Florida Senate seat being vacated by first term Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), it is natural that Grayson relies on his outrageous ability to tweak an ascending Republican Presidential candidate like Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and stand out from his primary opponent Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL 18th).

One wonders whether Cruz's propensity for principled fights is more like Miley Cyrus or Grayson's absurd analogies are more like the twerk jerk.

The horror. It makes one want to scream (sic).

Navigating the Intersection of Forced Florida Redistricting and the 2016 Election Cycle

As a result of the 2010 Census, Florida gained two Congressional seats.  The Republican majority in the Florida Legislature did what incumbents have done for centuries, drawn gerrymandered maps which helps their factions and themselves.

In a 5-2 vote, the Florida Supreme Court agreed with Democrat found that the redrawn maps were: “'[T]aint(ed)' by unconstitutional intent to favor the Republican Party and incumbents.thereby found to to violate the Fair District Amendment to the Florida Constitution.  State lawmakers were given 100 days to meet in special session to present new maps.

 Justice Barbara Pariente’s majority opinion did not throw out the entire congressional map but eight districts boundaries and their surrounding districts have been earmarked for redrawing.

It is naive to think that an inherently political act like setting district boundaries, whether done legislatively, judicially or by supposedly independent citizen bodies, will be done in a non-partisan fashion.

Florida congressional maps also much undergo additional scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice to ensure compliance with the Voting Rights Act since 1965. A way to placate minority rights advocates is to create carve-out Minority Majority districts. A redistricting tactic is cramming which puts as many minorities in a care-out district as possible, which simultaneously helps Republicans in adjacent districts,

 Sometimes these gerrymandered districts take on monsterous shapes to connect as many minority voters to a district as possible.  This can be seen in Florida’s serpentine 5th Congressional District, which stretches from Jacksonville to parts of Orlando, and gives the 14 term incumbent Representative Corrine Brown (D-FL 5th) a D +16 district.

Florida 5th Congressional District D +16 52% Black

The nearby 4th Congressional District is also an extremely gerrymandered district 8 term incumbent Anders Crenshaw (R-FL 4th) with a R +17.  Redrawing the boundaries of these two gerrymandered districts might even things out for partisan politics.  However, the poignant factor is the racial makeup.  On the one hand, Florida’s 4th congressional district is 77% white in an odd but relatively contiguous shape.

Florida 4th Congressional District R +16, 12% Black population

 On the other hand, Florida’s 5th congressional district is only 52 % black and was large enough to have enough Democrats by connecting a patchwork along the I-4 to Orlando. There is no easy way to create such a Minority Majority district in Northern Florida.

This Florida Supreme Court ruling upends the status quo which as protected incumbent in a Majority Minority district.  No wonder why Rep. Corrine Brown so vehemently denounced this Florida Supreme Court ruling.

The holding could at worst draw Corrine Brown out of a cushy incumbent Congressional seat and at best make her work for re-election being pitted against incumbent Rep. Crenshaw on an unfavorable electoral battleground. Of course, such sentiments will be framed in terms of minority access and having elected officials who look familiar.

In south Florida, there are already two Minority Majority districts, held by Congressional Black Caucus members Rep. Alcee Hastings and Rep. Frederica Wilson.   To keep in compliance with the 1964 Voting Rights Act, there will need to be a Minority Majority district, but this one may be closer to Orlando.

It has been speculated that after this Florida Supreme Court ruling that a Minority Majority district would shift to be East West (akin to the I-4 corridor). Census data indicates that such a district would not likely be black majority but Hispanic. Wonder where Jorge Bonilla lives?

This is where census data crunchers intersect with electoral politics.  The Florida Democrat Party seemed to be fully backing 32 year old two term Representative Patrick Murphy (D-FL 18th) for the Senate.  But Murphy only came to office after the 2010 election thru a well funded national campaign to defeat former Congressman Alan West and some suspicions of voter fraud.  Florida’s 18th Congressional District is current R +4, which makes it ripe for a Republican takeover in the 2016 cycle.

Alas, Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL 9th) , the flamboyantly pugnacious progressive partisan has also announced that he is running to success Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL).  Grayson is a wealthy politician who can self fund a campaign if necessary so his announcement is a serious wrench in Florida Democrat election politics. Florida law prohibits politicians running simultaneously for two elective offices.  So as Congressmen Grayson and Murphy position themselves to duke it out for the Florida Democrat Senate nomination, neither will be in position to expend political capital to protect their current Congressional districts via allies in the Florida State Legislature.

If a Hispanic Majority Minority district was created, the bulk of such constituents would come from 12 term incumbent Congressman John Mica (R-FL 7th)’s district.  Considering that the Orlando Sentinel named Rep. Mica the 4th most powerful person in Central Florida, it would not be surprising if Mr. Mica’s political prospects were well attended by allies in the state legislature.

The Florida Supreme Court mandated that Florida’s 25th, and newly created 26th and 27th congressional districts will have to be redrawn.  Congresswoman Ilena Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL 27th), the 14 term incumbent who previously represented Florida’s 18th Congressional District, is currently seated in a R +2 district, yet the Florida Supreme Court ruled that it needs revision. In addition, Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, the 7 term incumbent currently representing Florida’s 25th Congressional District might also have some friends in Tallahassee. Such courtesy may come at the expense of freshman Congressman Carlos Curbelo, (R-FL 26th) who narrowly defeated former Congressman Joe Garcia (D-26th) in a R +4 district, but there may be more Democrat voters this cycle as it is a Presidential election.  However, incumbency has its advantages, Patrick Murphy only won by .08% in 2012 in an R +3 district but he garned 60% support as an incumbent in 2014 (even out matching Republican Governor Scott’s 55% margin)

 Two Congressional Districts on Florida’s West Coast also will require redrawing per the Florida Supreme Court ruling.  Florida’s 14th Congressional seat is a D +11 district represented by five term incumbent Kathy Castor (although prior to 2013, she represented Florida’s 11th Congressional District).  The adjacent district is Florida’s 13th which is represented by Congressman David Jolly, who won a special election in 2014 against former Democrat gubernatorial and Senate candidate Alex Sink.  Jolly won re-election seven months later with a 72% victory in a R +1 district.

FL13th CD R +1/ [R] FL 14th CD D + 11

Considering the extremely narrow Republican majority in Florida’s 13th, one might expect David Jolly to be in electoral trouble in the 2016 cycle if his district is redrawn.  But Jolly was incredibly aided by news that his only announced Democrat opponent Eric Lynn tried to game the taxation system up North by claiming homestead exemptions for a DC townhouse in Dupont Circle and a home tax credit for a place in Rockville, MD.  To compound matters, Lynn lied about trying to vitiate the measly $619 credit from the DC Taxman.

A half century after enactment of the Voting Rights Act, Federal intrusion threatens the (re)drawing of Congressional Districts. While a political animal is dubious whether drawing up “Fair Districts” in a non-partisan manner is realistic, it is now part of the Florida Constitution. The non-partisan effort is complicated by the threat of a Civil Rights Action at the Department of Justice.  Apparently, the political tension is between giving Democrats a fighting chance in many district or having a few ensured Minority Majority districts. The twist is that Florida may create a third Minority Majority district, but it may not be to Congresswoman Corrine Brown’s or progressive Democrats liking. Depending on how extensive the redistricting is, there may be many campaigns who will have to hustle to best compete for the August 30, 2016 primaries.



h/t: Bill Day

Spinning the Florida 13 Sink Hole

Last month, the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) sent out a fundraising letter for the Florida 13th Congressional Special Election to support their candidate Alex Sink.  This Congressional race, where Democrats outspent Republicans on television by a 4 to 1 margin, centered on the Affordable Care Act.  Sink promised to reform Obamacare whereas  Tea Party inspired Republican challenger David Jolly (R-FL 13th) advocated outright overturning Obamacare.

After Jolly won the Special Election, the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) had some fun doing red pen edits on this DCCC messaging missive. 

Democrats could not stop spinning the Sink hole.  DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL 23rd) sounded like Baghdad Bob in her spin control for the loss on the race. 

[L] DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL 23rd) [R] Baghdad Bob 

Undoubtedly, Democrats will follow an Alinskyite approach to campaigning, demonizing an archtypical opponent, be it the Koch Brothers or House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH 8th).  But even after ad hominen attacks and class warfare campaigns, Democrats will need a positive message.  The minimum wage hike is more of a minor wedge issue which pays off its union support (by raising pay scales for all unionized employees) but it will need an overarching issue.  

After the results from the Florida 13 Special Election, it will be interesting if they double down and remain all in by running on Obamacare elsewhere.  It could be, as national Democrats are encouraging Ms. Sink to run again against Jolly in the November General Election. Maybe that is a hangover from Sink's jolly concession speech. 

Sink: "Although we are disappointed, the bars are open--let's enjoy our friendship"

Alex Sink, the Democrat candidate for Congress in the Special Election in District-13, had a jovial concession speech.  Shortly after the polls closed showing that she had lost by two percent, Sink  addressed supporters to let them know that she had called her victorious opponent Congressman-Elect Dave Jolly (R-FL 13th) and thank her supporters.  All of that is standard fare. However Sink's plucky peroration  "[A]though we are disappointed, the bars are open--let's enjoy our friendship" is unusual in openly embracing drowning sorrows.


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A more subtle detail about Sink's concession speech is the lack of fellow Democrat dignitaries on the dais.   Sink was not a shot in the dark candidate.  Sink was married to Bill McBride, a Florida politician who unsuccessfully ran for Governor in 202.  In her own right, Sink had been Florida's Chief Financial Officer before gaining the Democrat nomination for Governor in 2010 and only lost in the general election by 1%.

When 22 term Congressman Bill Young (R-FL 13th) died in October, a special election was called in a Pinellas County based District that is only R+1 and had voted for Obama in the last two Presidential elections.  The Florida Democrat party cleared the field for Sink to run.

Over $10 million was spent in this Special Election campaign and Democrats outspent unknown Jolly on negative television ads 4 to 1. Democrats sent high profile surrogates, including former President Bill Clinton, to campaign for sink.  So much was invested in this race as Democrats considered it a must win since this Special Election was a test run for Democrat messaging for Obamacare.  Sink campaigned that she would help fix Obamacare, whereas Tea Party inspired attorney David Jolly advocated complete repeal.

Congressman-elect David Jolly (R-FL 13th)

Jolly can not savor his success for long.  The special election was only for the nine months remaining on the term.  Moreover, Jolly only won by two percent which is not a comfortable margin of victory in that district. However, if one considers how much Jolly was outspent along with the high profile elements of the Sink campaign, this Special Election may be a bellweather to Democrat success in the November General Election. Perhaps "[A]though we are disappointed, the bars are open--let's enjoy our friendship" may be prophetic words for Democrats.